The survey conducted by the ABP News-CVoter Battle has claimed that Goa is once again heading for the split mandate and in such condition also the BJP will emerge as a single largest party in the state.
Now that we know that the BJP will come out as a clean winner in the forthcoming elections the question comes is who will be sitting in the opposition. As per the latest updates the Congress has been reduced to only couple of MLAs while the other regional parties are getting into the alliances.
The only option that remains is AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) which according to the survey will be the next strong opposition in the Goa Assembly with 24 percent vote share.
But that does not mean the congress is finished. According to the survey the erstwhile prime contender Congress will be gaining 20 percent vote share, but how many of them remain the party post election that only the time will tell.
The backdoor entry has become the mantra in the Goan politics and every candidate (politician) regardless of which party he or she contest the possibility of they merging with the ruling BJP cannot be ruled out.
The past has shows us how the Congress candidates defected the party and entered into BJP and this was not limited to the congress alone. Almost all the regional parties went into BJP and some fell apart afterwards.
According to the reports, the current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted from November 13 to December 9, among 18+ adults, including likely voters.
The survey was conducted telephonically on Total of 92 thousand persons across the five states. UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa and it is supposed to have a margin of plus or minus 5 percent.
In the earlier rounds of the Tracker, BJP was projected to win a simple majority, but heading into the final weeks, that edge has undergone erosion. Currently, BJP is projected to win 19 seats, just one shy of the halfway mark of 20 seats. AAP is the…
According to the survey report, the BJP vote was sinking in the state due to downwards popularity of the politicians but the incompetence of the Congress party and better groundwork of AAP has resulted into splitting of incumbency votes which ultimately pushed the BJP into an advantageous position.
The Kingmakers
According to the Survey, there will be a other small and regional parties will play a major role as kingmakers since they will be sharing together 26 percent of the votes in the state by winning as much as 8 seats.
The verdict of the hung assembly will remain dependent on these small and regional parties.
The AAP may or may not play the role in the forming of government which only time will tell since most of the parties are hungry for the power and they are doing whatever possible to win the confidence of the people of Goa.
Meanwhile, there is no mention of the upcoming regional arm the Revolutionary Goans who have now merged with the Goa Su-raj party to contest the forthcoming election. It could be due to lack of knowledge of the surveyor or people of Goa may not be giving any importance to them.
Who Will Come to Power at the End?
According to the Free Press Journal BJP that is winning between 17 to 21 seats in the next Goa assembly election will retain the power in the state garnering 30 percent of the vote share, the survey reveals. Incumbent CM Pramod Sawant emerged the most preferred candidate.
In the 40 member assembly of Goa if BJP takes 21 seats that means remaining 19 seats will get divided amongst the AAP (5-9 Seats), Congress (3-5 seats) and other regional and small parties will retain the remaining 8-10 seats, coming out as kingmakers.
