The first wave of Covid-19 that started in March last year ended in January 2021 and things started reopening but not for long as it grappled the country soon in the month of April with the second wave and things started taking a terrible turn this time with hundreds of thousands of deaths, lack of infrastructure and ill-prepared system.
Now according to the reports, the third wave is scheduled to come somewhere in January or March 2022, and the second wave will get over by the end of July. A three-member panel of scientists set up by the central government has come out with this forecast.
The reports further suggest that these are the fairly optimistic projections made by the three-member panel of scientists set up by the Department of Science and Technology under the Science Ministry of the Government of India.
The scientists use the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach) Model to get to this prediction, they have also predicted that by the end of May 2021 the country will witness around 1.5 Lakh cases per day and the same will come down to 20 thousand cases per day by the end of June 2021.
The states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana besides Delhi and Goa have already seen their peak and the other states like Tamil Nadu will see their peak between May 29 and 31 while Puducherry will witness its peak on May 19-20, stated the report.
The states in northeast India such as Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura will see the peak by the end of May, and similarly the other states in the North like Himachal Pradesh, Punjab may witness the peak a little earlier.
According to the model, a third wave is expected in six to eight months and the impact of the same can be cushioned. “It will be localized and many people will not be affected because they will enjoy immunity thanks to vaccination,” Professor Agarwal said. He added that there will not be a third wave till October 2021 at least.
What is SUTRA Model and How it Works?
Mathematical models such as the SUTRA model help to predict the intensity of pandemics and, hence, influence policy decisions. The SUTRA model came into existence last year to study the trajectory of Covid.
This National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee that uses the model, meanwhile, was formed by the government to make projections about the spread of Covid-19 in India. The committee, however, accepted that it was unable to predict the nature of the second wave in the country. “We were very optimistic when we said the second wave will see 1.5 lakh cases daily. We were wrong,” Professor Vidyasagar, from IIT Hyderabad, told India Today.