The poll surveys are taking a toll on the Goan politics with disparate polls favoring different political parties in the state. The Kautilya Survey which came first in the month of June with the bang showing the AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) leading in Goa with 14 seats while BJP narrowed down to just 11 seats and Congress was reduced to a minority with just 7 seats in the 40 seats Goa assembly. But now the new survey done by the India Today has changed the complete picture with Congress is leading with 17 seats while BJP + MGP alliance showing combined 21 seats and AAP has been reduced to complete minority with just 3 seats. What are the basis of these surveys and what will happen to the rest of the political parties and independent candidates? Read the complete report here.
Following the Kautilya Survey, another survey came in, that was brought in by the BJP supported media group showing the clear victory of BJP in the forthcoming assembly polls in Goa. There seems to be no end for the surveys with each new media favouring the another political party’s victory. The fresh example is the India Today survey reports showing the congress emerging out as leading political party in Goa while the BJP is relying on the alliance with MGP which is not yet confirmed.
According to the reports published by the Delhi Based media company India Today along with the AXIS agency, the congress party in the state has shown emerging as the single leading political party with 17 seats while the BJP and MGP combined scores only 21 seats in the 40 seats Goa Assembly House. The survey reports were released on the Friday by India-Axis opinion poll.
Here the most surprising or perhaps the shocking news is the position of AAP which has been reduced from Majority to complete minority with just 1-3 seats. The report published by the Kautilya was showing the AAP winning around 35% of the seats in the Goa Assembly poll 2017 which now does not even win 3 seats. While the congress that was reduced to a minority has been elevated by the India-Axis report to Majority.
The Reports says that The Aam Aadmi Party, which has littered the State with banners from an earlier supposed survey stating that it will get 35% of the vote share, comes a distant third in the India Today-Axis poll with a seat range projection of 1-3 and 16% of the vote share. At the very least, it is now time to get those banners off and replace them with new ones, showing where it stands with the latest opinion poll, a vote share of 16%, not 35%. The India Today-Axis opinion poll, conducted across all constituencies in poll-bound states in early 2017, did so in Goa too. While the sample size of 2015, sampled between September 5 and October 5, isn’t such a big number, the dipstick was done in all 40 seats.
The BJP-MGP combine leads with 38% of the vote share and a projection of 17-21 seats. The Congress is second with 34% vote share and a surprisingly higher number of seats than popular expectation, between 13-17 seats. Therefore, dependent on the percentage of voting, if the Congress inches up and the BJP inches down, Goa could actually see an unbelievable neck and neck fight, according to this India Today-Axis opinion poll.
According to the survey reports the falling of the percentage of AAP is due to various reasons out of which the first isAam Aadmi Party, facing a barrage of investigations, including those of alleged corruption in Delhi against its officials and senior ministers, has received a projected vote share of 16% and a mere 1-3 seat range. But now it’s clear that even as it gets 16%, which reflects certain inroads AAP has indeed made, the beneficiary is the BJP. AAP’s presence has surely put a check on the Congress if these poll figures are anything to go by and the vote split has boosted BJP’s seat figure.
AAP leader Dr. Oscar Rebello, who appeared on the India Today show to analyze the poll, was almost dismissive of these findings saying that these are early days. He said that polls had given the AAP no chances before the Delhi elections too. However, when a recent Kautilya survey (details of which are completely hazy) gave AAP a 35% vote share, the party made banners of the findings and installed them on the poll, trees, and hoardings.
As far as the selection of the CM candidate is concerned which is another interesting finding of this survey which shows that more respondents are in favour of Laxmikant Parsekar being their CM with the 31% votes over the ex-CM and current AM Manohar Parrikar with just 19% and Congress leader Digambar Kamat (who was offered as a pick since he was the previous Congress CM), being favoured by 14%.
Although the current survey shows that Congress getting 17 seats on their now while BJP+MGP alliance taking away 21 seats but no-one getting the absolute majority and the chances of the coalition government with the stakes of newcomers (recently mushroomed political parties) will be more in the formation of the new government in the Goa state. Who, according to you will be forming the government this time? It will be again BJP+MGP of it will be Congress + Independent + Regional parties? Please do share your views on this.